Embargo 2301H UK time Tuesday 11 May
New research presented at this year’s European Congress on Obesity (online, 10-13 May) shows that France is set to see the burden of obesity- and alcohol-related chronic diseases including liver disease, heart disease and stroke all increase significantly in the years up to 2030. The study is by Dr Lise Retat and Joshua Card-Gowers, HealthLumen*, London, UK, and colleagues across Europe.
Obesity is increasing across Europe, and together with alcohol consumption, contributing to rising rates of liver diseases, which are pressuring healthcare systems and causing considerable economic consequences. Quantifying the epidemiological and economic burden of obesity and alcohol-related conditions will provide evidence for appropriate interventions and policies to be implemented.
A dynamic, representative virtual population of France was generated based on United Nations population data. Epidemiological and cost data for liver diseases, CHD, and stroke in France were extracted from published sources and databases. The morbidity, mortality, and costs of liver diseases, CHD, and stroke were projected to 2030 based on changing trends in alcohol consumption and obesity in France. The illustrative impact of an annual 5% reduction in alcohol consumption, and an annual 1% BMI reduction was then estimated as an optimistic, hypothetical scenario.
The model shows that obesity is projected to increase in men, from 17.8% to 27.3%; and women, from 19.3% to 31.3%, between 2020 to 2030 if no new policies are implemented. Static alcohol trends were used in the model, with approximately 31% of men and 14% of women drinking over 52.5 and 35 units of alcohol per-week respectively at population-level.
In the ‘do nothing’ model, the authors predict that between 2020 and 2030 in France, there will be 73,000 new cases of liver cirrhosis, 61,000 new chronic liver disease cases, and 55,000 new cases of liver cancer. They also predict 425,000 new cases of CHD and 550,000 new strokes.
If France achieves a 1% annual BMI reduction and 5% annual alcohol consumption reduction across this decade, the model shows that this could prevent 16,000 cases of liver cirrhosis; 13,000 cases of CLD; and 9,000 cases of liver cancer. Furthermore, 57,000 cases of CHD and 51,000 strokes could be avoided.
Under the ‘do nothing’ model, the economic burden of liver diseases is expected to grow between 2020 and 2030, with preliminary results showing the direct healthcare costs of liver cirrhosis increasing by 5.3% to €3.5Bn; and liver cancer by 21% to €2.6Bn. The costs of CHD and stroke are projected to increase by 17% and 18% respectively.
Yet if France were to achieve the hypothetical BMI and alcohol consumption reduction, the country could save €1.5Bn by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario (see table 2 of poster). Furthermore, under the intervention scenario, 160,000 and 120,000 hospitalisations from liver cirrhosis and liver cancer, respectively, could be avoided by 2030.
The authors conclude: “This microsimulation modelling study predicts increases in the incidence of liver diseases, CHD and stroke if current alcohol and BMI trends continue. Policy measures that reduce these risk factors in the French population could mitigate the expected increase in the health burden and costs of alcohol- and BMI-related non-communicable diseases.”
This press release is based on poster presentation EP4-36 at the European Congress on Obesity (ECO2021). All accepted abstracts have been extensively peer reviewed by the congress selection committee. There is no full paper at this stage, but the authors are happy to answer your questions. The research has not yet been submitted to a medical journal for publication. As the poster has been updated with latest results, only that is included and not the abstract on this occasion.
For full poster, click here
Selected Media Coverage
Le Figaro (France)
Le Parisien (France)
Huffington Post (France and international)
